Will stocks follow inaugural history?

History tells us that presidential inaugurations, regardless of party, inspire an upward tick in the stock markets.

“An interesting twist is that whenever we have a Republican in, and you always think Republicans tend to be more business-incorporated, you see an 8 percent run-up in the market,” said Christopher Doyle of the Center for Financial Planning, 524 30 Road.

“The last several Democratic leaders, with the exception of Jimmy Carter, we’ve seen 16 percent run-ups in the market. It’s an unusual dichotomy.”

It’s time again to mind the books.

On one level, it’s one of the best years for stock discounts ever. On another, the conservative-minded savers might want to pull in the reins.

Doyle expects to see signs of better times in June or July. The two to three months following inauguration is considered the holiday period when stocks will react, depending on how quickly the new administration begins pushing its programs through Congress.

“With the amount of emotion that’s out there, almost anything is a bet,” Doyle said.

Based on daily corporate news about bailout funds and company moves, things this year might be more unpredictable, he said.

What people chose to do if they revisit their portfolio, he said, “depends on the person.”

Federal-backed money markets are a safer bet for conservative investors, Doyle said.

The flip side is the discounted stock market.

Now, much of the investments are going for well below their worth, he said.

Kim Last is a certified financial planner for Century Securities Associates Inc.

“The highest the stock market ever reached in October 2007, the DOW was above 14,000,”

Last said. “Now it’s down around 8,000. It’s almost in half. So when you go shopping to buy something at the stock market, you’re getting it half price.”


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