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Broncos should be up 3 on Chargers by Sunday night

Saturday, November 22, 2008

There are big wins.

Denver’s 24-20 win over Atlanta last Sunday certainly rates as one.

There are big losses.

San Diego’s 11-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (downgraded from 18-10 by NFL officials after the game was over) certainly should be included in those ranks.

Can you say two-game swing?

The Broncos have — thanks to that huge win over the Falcons that featured a chorus of backup singers and band of studio musicians on stage with Pavarotti — opened a two-game lead over the unfortunate Chargers with six games to play.

And, as pointed out last week, the Chargers don’t exactly have it easy the rest of the way.

Denver hosts Oakland today.

The Chargers host Indianapolis tonight.

I know which team I’d rather play.

Denver will have a three-game lead over the Chargers with five games to play by the time we hit the sack tonight.

Let’s go back to the backup singers and studio musicians:

When is the last time a rookie fullback, a longshot to make the team in training camp and then only as a special teams player, becomes your starting tailback? Meet Peyton Hillis. All Hillis did last Sunday was rush for 44 yards on 10 carries, two of those for touchdowns, and catch three passes for another 26 yards.

This effort came two weeks after Hillis’ breakout game two weeks ago when he caught seven passes for 116 yards.

In short, the 250-pound rookie blocking back is on his way to becoming a force in the league.

But Hillis certainly isn’t the only youngster making an impact.

Another rookie, Spencer Larsen, set the clock back roughly six decades when he started on both sides of the ball, working as the lead blocker for Hillis and other Bronco rushers, as starting middle linebacker, and as the wedge-buster on special teams. In addition to his blocking, he had seven tackles, six of them unassisted.

Those two were huge in Denver’s huge win over Atlanta.

But they weren’t the only unsung heroes.

Linebacker Jamie Winborn, a 29-year-old veteran who has played for more teams than I’ve had cars, led the team with 10 tackles. Two weeks ago, he was a situational backup.

Linebacker Wesley Woodyard, an undrafted rookie free agent out of Kentucky, had nine tackles. Recently he was practice squad tackling dummy fodder.

Just for the fun of it, let’s go through the Broncos defense:

The linebacking corps of Winborn, Woodyard and Larsen led the team in tackles.

The defensive backs were led in tackles by Jack Williams and Josh Bell, both rookie corners, who both had five tackles. Veteran corner Dre’ Bly also had five tackles. Also starting for the Broncos against Atlanta was Chris Lowry, a free-agent signee from Tennessee only a few weeks ago, who played alongside Marquand Manuel at safety.

The defensive line is where most of the “veterans” resided, with John Engleberger, Ebenezer Ekuban, Kenny Peterson and Dewayne Robertson seeing plenty of action. But playing with them were second-year men Marcus Thomas and Jarvis Moss and third-year player Elvis Dumervil.

If you go over those names, the only players starting when the season opened were Bly, Engleberger, Dumervil, Robertson and Manuel.

Doing the math, seven new starters on defense.

And maybe, with the way things went against Atlanta, youth and aggressiveness are not bad things.

This new defensive unit, while it shouldn’t be confused with past great Steelers, Ravens and maybe even New England defenses, won’t take a step back today at home against Oakland.

The 2-8 Raiders have a new “interim” coach in Tom Cable, haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters and are averaging only 8.3 points per game in six games under Cable.

JaMarcus Russell, in his first year as a starting QB, is completing only 51 percent of his passes and throwing for only 1,445 yards in 11 games, an average of only 135 yards per game.

The team’s biggest offensive threat, rookie running back Darren McFadden, has just returned from an ankle injury and should see plenty of action today against the Broncos’ new defense.

But the Broncos won’t be defeated by potential today.

I’ll take my 4-6 record picking with or against Denver (4-5-1 vs. the spread), a 10-point favorite today, and say the Broncos win this one, but don’t cover. Let’s make it Denver 24, Oakland 16.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee, 11 a.m.

Jets (7-3): Running back Thomas Jones leads the AFC with 854 rushing yards and aims for his third consecutive 100-yard rushing yard game (149, 104).

Titans (10-0): Dating back to Dec. 16, 2007, Tennessee has 13 consecutive regular-season wins, the longest current streak in the NFL.

Favorite: Titans by 51⁄2

RUNNING BACK

Start ’em: Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay at Detroit — Earnest Graham is down and out.

Sit ’em: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia at Baltimore — The Ravens rebound after getting flattened by the Giants.

QUARTERBACK

Start ’em: Matt Cassel, New England at Miami — Joey Porter isn’t smart to call the Patriots out again.

Sit ’em: Brett Favre, N.Y. Jets at Tennessee — Only because it’s Tennessee.

RECEIVER

Start ’em: Justin Gage, Tennessee vs. N.Y. Jets — With three touchdowns in the last two weeks, the Titans (finally) have a receiver threat.

Sit ’em: Chris Chambers, San Diego vs. Indianapolis — what he did in the first three weeks is a distant memory.

By RICK KRETZSCHMAR

Cox News Service

Often I have written about quirks in fantasy football leagues — especially Yahoo! leagues — that have worked against me. This week, I will write about a quirk that worked in my favor.

In my most important league, my team is 5-6. However, parity has descended on this league, and my team is one game out of the fourth and final playoff spot, and I play the team currently in fourth in two weeks. Even better, the combined record of my last three opponents is 16-17 and I don’t play any of the three strong teams that have separated from the pack.

Considering one game separates fourth from eighth place, my fellow masters of mediocrity have left some unflattering remarks about me on the league message board. We only have ourselves to blame for this mess. We only have 10 teams in the league.

That’s not enough for Yahoo! leagues. In such situations, teams play five opponents twice and four opponents once. Yahoo! determines which opponents will be played twice randomly.

This is an example of why 14 is the ideal number for fantasy leagues. In that case, each team plays each other once before three rounds of playoffs. Even a 12-team league would be more ideal as it would cut the number of opponents teams play twice to one or two. Alas, we didn’t do that this year, and I’m accused of messing with the schedule. Really, I had nothing to do with it. I’m not an expert at setting up not-so-challenging schedules. An expert in that field would be Texas Tech’s Mike Leach.

Philadelphia at Baltimore, 11 a.m.

Eagles (5-4-1): The defense had eight sacks last week, including two each by defensive ends Darren Howard and Trent Cole.

Ravens (6-4): Linebacker Ray Lewis has three interceptions in the past two games.

Favorite: Ravens by 1

Houston at Cleveland, 11 a.m.

Texans (3-7): Owen Daniels ranks second in the AFC among tight ends in receptions (45) and yards (555).

Browns (4-6): Cleveland is 5-0 when running back Jamal Lewis has 25 or more carries.

Favorite: Browns by 3

San Francisco at Dallas, 11 a.m.

49ers (3-7): The offense has 47 plays for 20 or more yards, tied for most in the NFL.

Cowboys (6-4): Wide receiver Terrell Owens played 121 games with the 49ers from 1996-2003.

Favorite: Cowboys by 10

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 11 a.m.

Buccaneers (7-3): Cornerback Aqib Talib is tied for the NFL lead among rookies with three interceptions.

Lions (0-10): Rookie running back Kevin Smith leads the team with 513 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

Favorite: Bucs by 81⁄2

Minnesota at Jacksonville, 11 a.m.

Vikings (5-5): Quarterback Gus Frerotte has won five of eight starts this season.

Jaguars (4-6): Running back Maurice Jones-Drew has six rushing touchdowns in the past three games.

Favorite: Jags by 21⁄2

Buffalo at Kansas City, 11 a.m.

Bills (5-5): Buffalo is 12-3 (.800) under head coach Dick Jauron when holding opponents to 300 yards or fewer.

Chiefs (1-9): Tight end Tony Gonzalez extended his reception streak to 125 games last week.

Favorite: Bills by 3

New England at Miami, 11 a.m.

Patriots (6-4): Quarterback Matt Cassel posted career-highs in completions (30), passing yards (400) and rushing yards (62) last week.

Dolphins (6-4): Miami is looking for its fifth win in a row for the first time since Dec. 24, 2005.

Favorite: Dolphins by 11⁄2

Chicago at St. Louis, 11 a.m.

Bears (5-5): Running back Matt Forte leads NFL rookies with 1,099 scrimmage yards and 51 first downs.

Rams (2-8): In three games against Chicago, St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger is averaging 314.3 passing yards per game.

Favorite: Bears by 81⁄2

Oakland at Denver, 2:05 p.m.

Raiders (5-4): Wide receiver Ronald Curry posted a season-high six receptions for 73 yards (12.2 avg.) last week.

Broncos (6-3): Denver has won six of the past seven games against the Raiders. The Broncos are 9-0 when quarterback Jay Cutler has a passer rating of 100 or higher.

Favorite: Broncos by 91⁄2

N.Y. Giants at Arizona., 2:15 p.m.

Giants (9-1): New York has won 13 of its past 14 road games, including playoffs. Quarterback Eli Manning is 23-5 (.821) in his past 28 starts.

Cardinals (7-3): Quarterback Kurt Warner is looking for his fifth game in a row with 325 or more passing yards.

Favorite: Giants by 3

Carolina at Atlanta, 2:15 p.m.

Panthers (8-2): Quarterback Jake Delhomme has won four of his past five starts against the Falcons.

Falcons (6-4): Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan is 4-1 (.800) at home with a 110.1 passer rating.

Favorite: Falcons by 1

Washington at Seattle; 2:15 p.m.

Redskins (6-4): Rookie Head Coach Jim Zorn returns to Seattle, where he played nine seasons at quarterback.

Seahawks (2-8): Running back T.J. Duckett, who spent the 2006 season with Washington, had two rushing touchdowns last week.

Favorite: Redskins by 31⁄2

Indianapolis at San Diego, 6:15 p.m.

Colts (6-4): Indianapolis is looking for its sixth consecutive win in November.

Chargers (4-6): Since 2006, San Diego is 14-1 (.933) at home vs. AFC foes.

Favorite: Chargers by 3

Green Bay at New Orleans, 6:15 p.m., Monday

Packers (5-5): Running back Ryan Grant had 145 yards and one touchdown last week.

Saints (5-5): New Orleans leads the NFL in total offense with 411.5 yards per game. Defensive end Jeff Charleston had a career-high 2.0 sacks last week.

Favorite: Saints by 21⁄2

— Source: NFL

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