When it comes to politics, geography can sometimes be as important as policy. In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District geography is the unavoidable gorilla in the room when candidates consider running.

Congressional districts are expected to have fairly equal numbers of voters within their confines to balance the value of the individual vote and representation it receives. This inevitably leads to large swings in the geographic size of districts and Colorado has two extremes within its borders.

The 1st Congressional District, which is centered in the Denver metro area, covers only 173 square miles, while the 3rd Congressional District encompasses western Colorado and more, a 54,000-square-mile footprint that includes areas from Moffat County in the northwest to Las Animas in the southeast.

A candidate in the 1st Congressional District may wear out shoe leather during her campaign, but a 3rd Congressional candidate is mostly likely to wear out tires, and snow tires at that, as many of the communities are near the backbone of the Continental Divide.

Incumbency in this type district is a powerful force, as your name is used in news stories from one end of the district to the other, maintaining recognition and message.  A wily candidate in a district like this can also utilize the franking privilege to send out postage-free communication to voters, outlining his daring exploits and excerpts from speeches often given to empty chambers, but technically on the record.

It is, then, no surprise that the incumbency of 3rd District Rep. John Salazar is in a moribund posture of political readiness, as the effort to mount a campaign in this far-flung district is not undertaken unless a competent challenger is on the scene. So, like a recalcitrant bunny at the bottom of a magician’s hat, Salazar seems unwilling to be easily pulled out. Perhaps the name Scott Tipton will cause a nose to emerge and sniff the surrounding air.

Tipton, who lives in Cortez, is presently a state representative for House District 58, but in 2006 he mounted a campaign against then freshman Rep. Salazar. It was a bad year for Republican candidates and a particularly bad one for underfinanced campaigns like Tipton’s. He was however, viewed as a hard-working and knowledgeable candidate, one who, with the right backing and timing, could present a formidable presence. Political rumblings indicate he might be thinking this is the time.

The 2008 election carried troubling signs for Salazar as he rode the Obama support to victory but won with 2 percent less of the vote than he received in 2006 against an underfunded and outspent regional candidate. In this district, money to spread a message over long distance is a powerful force.

In 2006 Salazar overwhelmed Tipton 2 to 1, spending over $2 million on the campaign. But something happened in 2008. Salazar spent $900,000 on his 2008 campaign compared to regional candidate Wayne Wolf’s $26,000. Still, he could not carry Mesa, Montrose or Delta counties.

Additionally, Mr. Salazar is among that vulnerable group — now often commented upon — a Democrat in a tight district carried by both George W. Bush in 2004 and John McCain in 2008.

Traditionally, a party in power that controls both the legislative and executive branch suffers a slide in numbers during the next non-presidential election. Polling data and national sentiment this cycle seems to indicate that the 2010 congressional results may be less of a slide for Democratic candidates and more of a swan dive.

Growing dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership and dissembling by Salazar on powerful issues like health care will move his seat into contention to receive serious money and national Republican Party attention.

Many political types think Tipton is the best bet to unseat Salazar, who seems to have dwindling support and will not have the assistance of candidate Obama pulling liberals to the polls as he did in 2008. As for his tactics, so far Salazar seems to have adopted a constituent avoidance strategy that seems a bit unusual.

If Tipton is considering this office, there will be few better opportunities.

Rick Wagner offers more thoughts on politics at his blog, The War on Wrong, which can be reached through the blogs entry at GJSentinel.com.