Colorado polls offer reason for Obama campaign team to panic
More than a week after the presidential debate, the political class of the left, the far left and eventually the Obama campaign are still in full flap mode, with behavior you would normally see if you kicked the door open on a chicken coop and threw in a basket of hungry weasels.
Since it appears the only states that matter are the “swing” states, of which Colorado is one, our polling is important — and the polling has turned frightening for supporters of President Barack Obama.
This week, Pew Research announced results that showed Gov. Mitt Romney leading the president 49 percent to 45 percent in Colorado among likely voters. This is especially interesting because a month ago the president was leading Romney by nine points.
The polling group also found the president’s likability rating has dropped below the critical 50 percent mark, falling from 55 percent to 49 percent.
Officials at the Republican victory office in Denver told Fox 31 News they had seen an “explosion of people” coming in to volunteer since the debate. They said they had to double the number of phones in Jefferson County headquarters for all of the new volunteers.
Washington political newspaper The Hill reported this week that an American Research Group poll in Colorado showed Romney over President Obama 50 percent to 46 percent, with Romney leading among female voters 51 percent to 45 percent. There can be no joy in Mudville with those numbers.
I’m not surprised polls are tightening. I’m just a little surprised they’re doing it this soon. For the most part, I’ve considered most of the polling over the last month to be a bunch of hooey. Many national media sponsors and some of the polling organizations seemed to be propping up the president’s campaign and trying to discourage voter turnout among Republicans, as conservatives supposedly do among liberal voters by asking voters to have reasonable identification.
Most of the polling has oversampled probable Democrat turnout, working on the assumption that we will have an election pretty much like 1936, when people still thought FDR was trying to get them out of the Depression and members of his administration thought Russia’s collectivist farms were nifty.
Most of the media is not interested in sampling a turnout model based on the 2010 midterm election, which the president referred to as “a shellacking.”
I had supposed most of the polling organizations would show the race becoming tighter a week or so out, to preserve a little credibility. I regard some of this more honest interpretation as a bit of a fluke resulting from trauma brought on by the president’s debate performance.
Let me sum up that problem with one piece of information. In preparing for the debate the president’s stand-in for Romney was Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. The fact that someone believed Kerry could articulate conservative positions of any sort effectively should tell you the problem with the Obama campaign.
The simple truth is that the left does not understand conservative or even moderate Republican positions and therefore, within an unfiltered format, proponents of far-left positions cannot present an effective argument to a center-right nation.
At this point, it might be helpful to return to Colorado’s position in all of this, since we are signifying what is happening nationally. The preference of voters is starting to gel and voters who have not decided are looking harder at campaign positions and economic realities.
One thing you might’ve noticed is the low level of advertising buys in electronic media by either presidential campaign here in western Colorado. Many commercials we see are inserted in national media and not specifically for this state or region. I am told that is because — despite numerous trips here by the president — the Obama campaign has been unable to move preference numbers toward him and it sees a better use for resources in other corners of the state.
In federal races in the state, the most interesting is probably a tight race between incumbent Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter and Republican Joe Coors in the Denver suburbs. In our own 3rd Congressional District, Democratic challenger Sal Pace cannot catch on and I anticipate him to finish 6 percent to 8 percent behind Congressman Scott Tipton. I continue to predict Colorado for Romney.
Rick Wagner writes more on politics at his blog, The War on Wrong.