Fantasy Football: Flip a coin: Rodgers or Foster for top pick
Who would I take with the No. 1 overall pick?
It comes down to Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers or Houston running back Arian Foster.
If you had Rodgers last year, you were assured an average of 32 points. He threw 45 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. This year, he’s projected by ESPN to toss 47 touchdowns.
If you remain a believer in drafting a premier running back in the first round, you’d be hard-pressed not to take Foster with the top pick and hope for a second-tier quarterback in the second or third round. Foster, basically didn’t play in the first three games last year and still finished with 1,224 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. He also had 617 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Those numbers are hard to resist.
Projected first-rounder I would pass on?
Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald for one simple reason: Who is going to throw to him? Inconsistency from a quarterback kills a receiver’s production. There are too many questions about Arizona’s QB position, and the talent at wide receiver will again be pretty deep this year, so I will look elsewhere.
Five biggest risks in the draft?
1. Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones Drew. Contract disputes are a recipe for disaster. Look at what happened to Tennessee’s Chris Johnson last year.
2. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson is a huge risk coming off that horrific knee injury on Christmas Eve.
3. Buffalo running back Fred Jackson is 31 and coming off a broken leg suffered in Week 11 and Jackson will lose a lot of playing time to C.J. Spiller.
4. Denver quarterback Peyton Manning. Not playing a single down last year and three neck surgeries says it all. Then again, this is Peyton Manning.
5. St. Louis running back Steven Jackson. Even in a weak division the Rams are a horrible team, and Jackson can’t continue to carry the massive load he’s been carrying.
My top five quarterbacks?
1. Aaron Rodgers. If I went the quarterback route with the No. 1 overall pick, he’d be it.
2. New England’s Tom Brady has Wes Welker and two tight ends who catch everything, and the Patriots added Brandon Lloyd.
3. Carolina’s Cam Newton because of the remarkable season he had last year with basically only Steve Smith to throw to. Oh yeah, he also ran for a gazillion scores.
4. New Orleans’ Drew Brees is about as money as Rodgers, but the Saints have serious obstacles to overcome this year stemming from the bounties that led to losing its head coach.
5. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. Why? Two words: Calvin Johnson.
QB ranked in top 10 I won’t touch.
The Cowboys’ Tony Romo. This guy has one good game, then two bad games. I drafted him once. Never again.
My top five running backs.
1. Arian Foster is a scoring machine.
2. LeSean McCoy. A dump-off pass to this guy means 20-plus yards or more.
3. Chris Johnson. Last year is over. This year, he redeems himself — big time.
4. Baltimore’s Ray Rice who was second in the league in rushing (1,364 yards) and third in rushing touchdowns (12).
5. Dallas’s DeMarco Murray, my dark horse in the bunch, was going off before he was injured last year. He’ll do the same this year.
Two running backs who will get drafted in first five rounds whom I want nothing to do with.
1. Steven Jackson. The Rams depend on him too much, and he has a history of bad hamstrings.
2. New York Jets’ Shonn Greene. I want no part of the Jets’ mess.
Where should Adrian Peterson be drafted?
It’s hard to think AP won’t go in the first round even after shredding his knee. I won’t draft him because of the injury. I have a bad feeling he will need a year to bounce back.
My top five wide receivers.
1. Calvin Johnson. Throw it up, and he’ll catch it — sometimes one-handed and between two defenders.
2. Wes Welker. Reliable, speedy, and he catches passes from a guy named Brady.
3. Green Bay’s Greg Jennings. He’s Rodgers’ favorite target.
4. Houston’s Andre Johnson. I feel a massive comeback is about to erupt in Texas.
5. Atlanta’s Julio Jones. A big reason why I was a league champion last year. Trust me, he’s worth grabbing early and before teammate Roddy White.
Two wide receivers who will get drafted in the first five rounds whom I want nothing to do with.
1. Tampa Bay’s Vincent Jackson. The only thing I like about him this year is he went to my alma mater — University of Northern Colorado.
2. Dallas’s Miles Austin. A hamstring problem never fully goes away. Besides, Dez Bryant is gonna make up for last year in a big way.
Would I draft Randy Moss? If so, when?
Yes, I’d draft him. San Francisco is on the rise and probably will have to pass more this year. I wouldn’t, however, draft Moss until the sixth or seventh round.
Let’s concede Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the top two tight ends, who are the next three?
3. San Diego’s Antonio Gates. When he isn’t hurt, he is very consistent.
4. Aaron Hernandez. New England throws the heck out of the ball.
5. San Francisco’s Vernon Davis. I rate him a little higher than Green Bay’s Jermichael Finley because Alex Smith has far fewer weapons than Rodgers.
What round will I take a defense and why?
If I’m comfortable with the way my team is shaping up and am willing to pass on that third running back or wide receiver for the top-ranked defense, I’ll pull the trigger in the seventh round.
Three players who will have breakout years.
1. Atlanta’s Julio Jones. I think by the end of the year, he’ll be one of the top three receivers.
2. Cleveland running back Trent Richardson, if healthy, will run wild.
3. Denver wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The guy went nuts the last five games despite Tim Tebow passing him the ball.
Past proven performer who will drop off significantly.
1. Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez. He is nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career, and I think this will be the year the end begins.